Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk estimates of COVID-19 epidemic inMinas Gerais State: analysis of an expanding process

摘要

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the recently discovered coronavirusSARS-Cov-2. The disease became pandemic affecting many countries globally,including Brazil. Considering the expansion process and particularities duringthe initial stages of the epidemic, we aimed to analyze the spatial andspatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 occurrence and to identify priority riskareas in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. An ecological study was performedconsidering all data from human cases of COVID-19 confirmed from theepidemiological week (EW) 11 (March 08, 2020) to EW 26 (June 27, 2020). Crudeand smoothed incidence rates were used to analyze the distribution of diseasepatterns based on global and local indicators of spatial association andspace-time risk assessment. Positive spatial autocorrelation and spatialdependence were found. Our results suggest that the metropolitan region of theState capital Belo Horizonte (MRBH) and Vale do Rio Doce mesoregions, as majorepidemic foci in the beginning of the expansion process, have had importantinfluence on the dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 in Minas Gerais State. TrianguloMineiro/Alto Paranaiba region presented the highest risk of infection. Inaddition, six statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters were identifiedin the State, three at high risk and three at low risk. Our findings contributeto a greater understanding of the space-time disease dynamic and discussstrategies for identification of priority areas for COVID-19 surveillance andcontrol.