Avoidable Mortality Attributable to Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter (PM

摘要

Ambient fine particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) air pollution increases premature mortality globally. Some PM2.5 is natural, but anthropogenic PM2.5 is comparatively avoidable. We determined the impact of long-term exposures to the anthropogenic PM component on mortality in Australia. PM2.5-attributable deaths were calculated for all Australian Statistical Area 2 (SA2; n = 2310) regions. All-cause death rates from Australian mortality and population databases were combined with annual anthropogenic PM2.5 exposures for the years 2006–2016. Relative risk estimates were derived from the literature. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were estimated in each SA2 using a satellite and land use regression model for Australia. PM2.5-attributable mortality was calculated using a health-impact assessment methodology with life tables and all-cause death rates. The changes in life expectancy (LE) from birth, years of life lost (YLL), and economic cost of lost life years were calculated using the 2019 value of a statistical life. Nationally, long-term population-weighted average total and anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations were 6.5 µg/m3 (min 1.2–max 14.2) and 3.2 µg/m3 (min 0–max 9.5), respectively. Annually, anthropogenic PM2.5-pollution is associated with 2616 (95% confidence intervals 1712, 3455) deaths, corresponding to a 0.2-year (95% CI 0.14, 0.28) reduction in LE for children aged 0–4 years, 38,962 (95%CI 25,391, 51,669) YLL and an average annual economic burden of $6.2 billion (95%CI $4.0 billion, $8.1 billion). We conclude that the anthropogenic PM2.5-related costs of mortality in Australia are higher than community standards should allow, and reductions in emissions are recommended to achieve avoidable mortality.