Statistical data driven approach of COVID-19 in Ecuador:

摘要

The growth of COVID-19 pandemic throughout more than 213 countries around the world have put a lot of pressures on governments and health services to try to stop the rapid expansion of the pandemic. During 2009, H1N1 Influenza pandemic, statistical and mathematical methods were used to track how the virus spreads around countries. Most of these models that were developed at the beginning of the XXI century are based on the classical susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model developed almost a hundred years ago. The evolution of this model allows us to forecast and compute basic and effective reproduction numbers (Rt and R0), measures that quantify the epidemic potential of a pathogen and estimates different scenarios.