Using Queue Theory and Load-Leveling Principles to Identify a SimpleMetric for Resource Planning in a Pediatric Emergency Department

摘要

Increased waiting time in pediatric emergency departments is a well-recognizedand complex problem in a resource-limited US health care system. Efforts toreduce emergency department wait times include modeling arrival rates, acuity,process flow, and human resource requirements. The aim of this study was toinvestigate queue theory and load-leveling principles to model arrival rates andto identify a simple metric for assisting with determination of optimal physicalspace and human resource requirements. We discovered that pediatric emergencydepartment arrival rates vary based on time of day, day of the week, and monthof the year in a predictable pattern and that the hourly change in pediatricemergency department waiting room census may be useful as a simple metric toidentify target times for shifting resources to better match supply and demandat no additional cost.