Covid-19; ICU patients; Deaths; Emergency planning; Resource allocation; ICU beds prediction;
机译:一种简化的数学方法来预测Covid-19大流行下医院应急规划的ICU床和死亡率
机译:A.Martin1,N.Boyle2,J.Cooke3,SPKennelly4,R.Martin5,M.Mulroy6,M.O'Connor7,S.O'Keeffe8,D.O'Neill4OnbehalfoftheIrishSocietyofPhysiciansinGeriatricMedicine.1.BeaumontHospital,Dublin.2.St .Vincent'sUniversityHospital,Dublin.3.UniversityHospitalWaterford.4.TallaghtUniversityHospital,Dublin.5.ConnollyHospital,Dublin.6.OurLadyofLourdesHospital,在家庭护理Drogheda.7.CorkUniversityHospital.8.GalwayUniversityHospital.AbstractResidents已经结出一个disproprtionate发病率和死亡率在COVID-19大流行相比于普通人群。虽然感染,发病率和死亡率在生活在养老院的老年人率高可能是由于增加了居民的脆弱性和合并症的水平,养老院内的物理基础设施和治理结构,也可能是非常显著。作者提出,对应该实施,加强安全和医疗质量养老院在爱尔兰的变化代表在老年医学,意见书医生的爱尔兰社会。 IntroductionResidentsinnursinghomesrepresentagroupwithhighlevelsofdisabilityandco-morbiditywhichrenderthemparticularlyvulnerabletoexternalandinternalstressors1,asexemplifiedbythehighdeathrateinIrishnursinghomesduringtheCOVID-19pandemic.Atthelastcensusin2016were22,762peopleover65yearsofage(3.7%)listedasresidentinnursinghomesinIreland2.Althoughthiswasadecreaseintheproportionoftheolderpopulationinresidentialcarefrom2011itreflectsanactualincreaseof9.4%inpeoplelivinginnursinghomesinthiscountry.Asoursocietyagesitwillbeincreasinglyimportanttoprovidehighqualitycareforthisvulnerablegroup.TheIrishSocietyofPhysiciansinGeriatricMedicine(ISPGM)haspromotedthedevelopmentofimprovedstandardsofcareinresidentialcareforseveraldecadesandwasthefirstIrishprofessionalgrouptoformulateimprovedstandardsofcarein2001,publishedintheIrishMedicalJournal3。
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机译:一种简化的数学方法来预测Covid-19大流行下医院应急规划的ICU床和死亡率