The daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number ... formula ... for MERS-CoV in South Korea

摘要

In this paper, we propose the daily computed weighted averaging basic reproduction number for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, May to July 2015. We use an SIR model with piecewise constant parameters (contact rate) and (removed rate). We use the explicit Euler’s method for the solution of the SIR model and a nonlinear least-square fitting procedure for finding the best parameters. In , the parameters , , and denote days from a reference date, the number of days in averaging, and a weighting factor, respectively. We perform a series of numerical experiments and compare the results with the real-world data. In particular, using the predicted reproduction number based on the previous two consecutive reproduction numbers, we can predict the future behavior of the reproduction number.