Understanding the Impact of Face Mask Usage Through Epidemic Simulation of Large Social Networks

摘要

Evidence from the 2003 SARS epidemic and 2009 H1N1 pandemic shows that face masks can be an effective non-pharmaceutical intervention in minimizing the spread of airborne viruses. Recent studies have shown that using face masks is correlated to an individual’s age and gender, where females and older adults are more likely to wear a mask than males or youths. There are only a few studies quantifying the impact of using face masks to slow the spread of an epidemic at the population level, and even fewer studies that model their impact in a population where the use of face masks depends upon the age and gender of the population. We use a state-of-the-art agent-based simulation to model the use of face masks and quantify their impact on three levels of an influenza epidemic and compare different mitigation scenarios. These scenarios involve changing the demographics of mask usage, the adoption of mask usage in relation to a perceived threat level, and the combination of masks with other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as hand washing and social distancing. Our results shows that face masks alone have limited impact on the spread of influenza. However, when face masks are combined with other interventions such as hand sanitizer, they can be more effective. We also observe that monitoring social internet systems can be a useful technique to measure compliance. We conclude that educating the public on the effectiveness of masks to increase compliance can reduce morbidity and mortality.