Mathematical prediction of the time evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by a Gauss error function and Monte Carlo simulations

摘要

Fit of the cumulative number of diagnosed positive cases of COVID-19 in China (red dots) from January 22, 2020 (included), to March 27, 2020 (included), and the fitting function of the type of a Gauss error function with four parameters (solid line). The horizontal axis reports the days from January 22, 2020; the vertical axis reports the cumulative number of diagnosed positive cases