Modeling Temperature Effects on Population Density of the Dengue Mosquito Aedes aegypti

摘要

Mosquito density plays an important role in the spread of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and Zika. While it remains very challenging to estimate the density of mosquitoes, modelers have tried different methods to represent it in mathematical models. The goal of this paper is to investigate the various ways mosquito density has been quantified, as well as to propose a dynamical system model that includes the details of mosquito life stages leading to the adult population. We first discuss the mosquito traits involved in determining mosquito density, focusing on those that are temperature dependent. We evaluate different forms of models for mosquito densities based on these traits and explore their dynamics as temperature varies. Finally, we compare the predictions of the models to observations of abundances over time in Vitòria, Brazil. Our results indicate that the four models exhibit qualitatively and quantitatively different behaviors when forced by temperature, but that all seem reasonably consistent with observed abundance data.