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Individual Differences in Base Rate Neglect: A Fuzzy Processing Preference Index

机译:基本利率忽视的个体差异:模糊加工偏好指数

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摘要

Little is known about individual differences in integrating numeric base-rates and qualitative text in making probability judgments. Fuzzy-Trace Theory predicts a preference for fuzzy processing. We conducted six studies to develop the FPPI, a reliable and valid instrument assessing individual differences in this fuzzy processing preference. It consists of 19 probability estimation items plus 4 "M-Scale" items that distinguish simple pattern matching from “base rate respect.” Cronbach's Alpha was consistently above 0.90. Validity is suggested by significant correlations between FPPI scores and three other measurers: "Rule Based" Process Dissociation Procedure scores; the number of conjunction fallacies in joint probability estimation; and logic index scores on syllogistic reasoning. Replicating norms collected in a university study with a web-based study produced negligible differences in FPPI scores, indicating robustness. The predicted relationships between individual differences in base rate respect and both conjunction fallacies and syllogistic reasoning were partially replicated in two web-based studies.
机译:关于在进行概率判断时整合数字基准率和定性文本的个体差异知之甚少。模糊跟踪理论预测了对模糊处理的偏好。我们进行了六项研究以开发FPPI,这是一种可靠且有效的工具,用于评估此模糊处理偏好中的个体差异。它由19个概率估计项和4个“ M规模”项组成,这些项将简单模式匹配与“基本速率方面”区分开来。 Cronbach的Alpha始终高于0.90。 FPPI评分与其他三个度量指标之间的显着相关性表明了有效性:“基于规则的”过程离解程序评分;联合概率估计中合取谬误的数量;三段论推理的逻辑指数得分。用基于网络的研究复制大学研究中收集的规范,FPPI得分的差异可忽略不计,表明其健壮性。在两项基于网络的研究中,部分重复了基本利率方面的个体差异与连带谬误和三段论推理之间的预测关系。

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