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Modelling the Effects of Seasonality and Socioeconomic Impact on the Transmission of Rift Valley Fever Virus

机译:模拟季节性和社会经济影响对裂谷热病毒传播的影响

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摘要

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito-borne viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that causes human deaths and significant economic losses due to huge incidences of death and abortion among infected livestock. Outbreaks of RVF are sporadic and associated with both seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Here we propose an almost periodic three-patch model to investigate the transmission dynamics of RVF virus (RVFV) among ruminants with spatial movements. Our findings indicate that, in Northeastern Africa, human activities, including those associated with the Eid al Adha feast, along with a combination of climatic factors such as rainfall level and hydrological variations, contribute to the transmission and dispersal of the disease pathogen. Moreover, sporadic outbreaks may occur when the two events occur together: 1) abundant livestock are recruited into areas at risk from RVF due to the demand for the religious festival and 2) abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge. These two factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks. Our numerical results present the transmission dynamics of the disease pathogen over both short and long periods of time, particularly during the festival time. Further, we investigate the impact on patterns of disease outbreaks in each patch brought by festival- and seasonal-driven factors, such as the number of livestock imported daily, the animal transportation speed from patch to patch, and the death rate induced by ceremonial sacrifices. In addition, our simulations show that when the time for festival preparation starts earlier than usual, the risk of massive disease outbreaks rises, particularly in patch 3 (the place where the religious ceremony will be held).
机译:裂谷热(RVF)是非洲和中东的一种重要的由蚊子传播的病毒性人畜共患病,由于受感染牲畜的死伤和流产发生率很高,导致人类死亡和重大经济损失。 RVF的发作是偶发性的,并与季节性和社会经济影响相关。在这里,我们提出了一个几乎周期性的三补丁模型,以研究RVF病毒(RVFV)在具有空间运动的反刍动物之间的传播动力学。我们的发现表明,在东北非洲,人类活动,包括与宰牲节有关的人类活动,以及诸如降雨水平和水文变化等气候因素的综合作用,都有助于疾病病原体的传播和传播。此外,当两个事件同时发生时,可能会发生零星的爆发:1)由于对宗教节日的需求,大量牲畜被招募到有RVF危险的地区,以及2)大量蚊子出现。已显示这两个因素对RVF爆发的严重程度有影响。我们的数值结果显示了疾病病原体在短期和长期内的传播动态,特别是在节日期间。此外,我们调查了节日和季节驱动因素对每个斑块中疾病暴发模式的影响,这些因素包括每天进口的牲畜数量,斑块之间的动物运输速度以及仪式牺牲引起的死亡率。此外,我们的模拟结果显示,当节日准备时间比平时更早开始时,大规模疾病暴发的风险就会增加,尤其是在补丁3(将举行宗教仪式的地方)中。

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