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A Generalized Likelihood-Free Method for Posterior Estimation

机译:用于后验估计的广义无似然方法

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摘要

Recent advancements in Bayesian modeling have allowed for likelihood-free posterior estimation. Such estimation techniques are crucial to the understanding of simulation-based models, whose likelihood functions may be difficult or even impossible to derive. However, current approaches are limited by their dependence on sufficient statistics and/or tolerance thresholds. In this article, we provide a new approach that requires no summary statistics, error terms, or thresholds, and is generalizable to all models in psychology that can be simulated. We use our algorithm to fit a variety of cognitive models with known likelihood functions to ensure the accuracy of our approach. We then apply our method to two real-world examples to illustrate the types of complex problems our method solves. In the first example, we fit an error-correcting criterion model of signal detection, whose criterion dynamically adjusts after every trial. We then fit two models of choice response time to experimental data: the Linear Ballistic Accumulator model, which has a known likelihood, and the Leaky Competing Accumulator model whose likelihood is intractable. The estimated posterior distributions of the two models allow for direct parameter interpretation and model comparison by means of conventional Bayesian statistics – a feat that was not previously possible.
机译:贝叶斯建模的最新进展允许进行无似然后验。这种估计技术对于理解基于仿真的模型至关重要,因为基于仿真的模型的似然函数可能很难甚至无法推导。但是,当前的方法受到它们对足够统计量和/或公差阈值的依赖的限制。在本文中,我们提供了一种不需要摘要统计信息,错误项或阈值的新方法,并且可以将其推广到可以模拟的所有心理学模型。我们使用我们的算法来拟合具有已知似然函数的各种认知模型,以确保我们方法的准确性。然后,我们将我们的方法应用于两个实际示例,以说明该方法解决的复杂问题的类型。在第一个示例中,我们拟合了信号检测的错误校正标准模型,其标准在每次尝试后都会动态调整。然后,我们将选择响应时间的两个模型拟合到实验数据:线性弹道累加器模型(具有已知的可能性)和泄漏竞争性累加器模型(其可能性难以解决)。这两个模型的估计后验分布可以通过常规贝叶斯统计方法直接进行参数解释和模型比较,这是以前不可能实现的壮举。

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