Estimated Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Health Risks for the Citizens of Fukushima City Tokyo and Osaka after the 2011 Nuclear Accident

摘要

The radionuclides released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 pose a health risk. In this study, we estimated the 1st-year average doses resulting from the intake of iodine 131 (¹³¹I) and cesium 134 and 137 (¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs) in drinking water and food ingested by citizens of Fukushima City (∼50 km from the nuclear power plant; outside the evacuation zone), Tokyo (∼230 km), and Osaka (∼580 km) after the accident. For citizens in Fukushima City, we considered two scenarios: Case 1, citizens consumed vegetables bought from markets; Case 2, citizens consumed vegetables grown locally (conservative scenario). The estimated effective doses of ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs agreed well with those estimated through market basket and food-duplicate surveys. The average thyroid equivalent doses due to ingestion of ¹³¹I for adults were 840 µSv (Case 1) and 2700 µSv (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 370 µSv in Tokyo, and 16 µSv in Osaka. The average effective doses due to ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs were 19, 120, 6.1, and 1.9 µSv, respectively. The doses estimated in this study were much lower than values reported by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, whose assessments lacked validation and full consideration of regional trade in foods, highlighting the importance of including regional trade. The 95th percentile effective doses were 2–3 times the average values. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 2.3–39×10⁻⁶ (Case 1) and 10–98×10⁻⁶ (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 0.95–14×10⁻⁶ in Tokyo, and 0.11–1.3×10⁻⁶ in Osaka. The contributions of LARs of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 7.5%–12% of all exposure (Case 1) and 12%–30% (Case 2) in Fukushima City.