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Modeling the Origin and Possible Control of the Wealth Inequality Surge

机译:对财富不平等激增的起源和可能的控制进行建模

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摘要

The rapid increase of wealth inequality in the past few decades is a most disturbing social and economic issue of our time. In order to control, and even reverse that surge, its origin and underlying mechanisms should be revealed. One of the challenges in studying these mechanisms is to incorporate realistic individual dynamics in the population level in a self-consistent manner. Our theoretical approach meets the challenge by using interacting multi-agent master-equations to model the dynamics of wealth inequality. The model is solved using stochastic multi-agent iterated maps. Taking into account growth rate, return on capital, private savings and economic mobility, we were able to capture the historical dynamics of wealth inequality in the United States during the course of the 20th century. We show that the fraction of capital income in the national income and the fraction of private savings are the critical factors that govern the wealth inequality dynamics. In addition, we found that economic mobility plays a crucial role in wealth accumulation. Notably, we found that the major decrease in private savings since the 1980s could be associated primarily with the recent surge in wealth inequality and if nothing changes in this respect we predict further increase in wealth inequality in the future. However, the 2007–08 financial crisis brought an opportunity to restrain the wealth inequality surge by increasing private savings. If this trend continues, it may lead to prevention, and even reversing, of the ongoing inequality surge.
机译:在过去的几十年中,贫富差距的迅速增加是当今时代最令人困扰的社会和经济问题。为了控制甚至扭转这种激增,应该揭示其起源和潜在机制。研究这些机制的挑战之一是以自洽的方式将现实的个体动态纳入人口水平。我们的理论方法通过使用交互的多主体主方程式对财富不平等的动力学建模来应对挑战。使用随机多主体迭代映射图求解模型。考虑到增长率,资本回报率,私人储蓄和经济流动性,我们能够捕捉到20世纪美国财富不平等的历史动态。我们表明,资本收入占国民收入的比重和私人储蓄的比例是支配财富不平等动态的关键因素。此外,我们发现经济流动性在财富积累中起着至关重要的作用。值得注意的是,我们发现自1980年代以来私人储蓄的大幅下降可能主要与近期财富不平等的加剧有关,如果这方面没有任何变化,我们预计未来财富不平等将进一步加剧。然而,2007-08年的金融危机通过增加私人储蓄来抑制财富不平等激增的机会。如果这种趋势继续下去,可能导致预防,甚至扭转当前不平等现象激增的趋势。

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