CHILDHOOD TO EARLY MID-LIFE SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE TRAJECTORIES: EARLY LIFE PREDICTORS EFFECT MODIFIERS AND ADULT CARDIOVASCULAR OUTCOMES

摘要

Previous studies examining blood pressure change over time have modelled an “average” population trajectory. Recent research among older adults suggests there may be subgroups with different blood pressure trajectories. Identifying subgroups at risk of developing adult hypertension early in life can inform effective risk reduction efforts. We sought to identify different systolic blood pressure trajectories from childhood, their correlated risk factors and early midlife cardiovascular outcomes. Blood pressure data at ages 7, 11, 18, 26, 32 and 38 years from a longitudinal, representative birth cohort study (n=975) were used to identify four distinct trajectory groups via group-based trajectory modeling: ‘normal’ (21.8%), ‘high-normal’ (43.3%), ‘prehypertensive’ (31.6%), and ‘hypertensive’ (4.2%). The categories refer to blood pressure beginning at age 7 and most recently measured at age 38. Family history of high blood pressure (OR=43.23, 95% CI 5.27, 354.65), male gender (OR=109.48, 95% CI=26.82, 446.96), being first born (OR=2.5 95% CI=1.00, 8.69) and low birthweight (OR=2.79, 95% CI 2.49, 3.09) were associated with hypertensive group membership (compared to the normal group). Higher body mass index and cigarette smoking resulted in increasing blood pressure across trajectories, particularly for the higher blood pressure groups. Prehypertensive and hypertensive trajectory groups had worse cardiovascular outcomes by early midlife. Harmful blood pressure trajectories are identifiable in childhood, associated with both antecedent and modifiable risk factors over time, and predict adult cardiovascular disease risk. Early detection, subsequent targeted prevention and/or intervention may reduce the lifecourse burden associated with higher blood pressure.