Assessing the capacity of the healthcare system to use additional mechanical ventilators during a large-scale public health emergency (PHE)

摘要

A large-scale Public Health Emergency (PHE), like a severe influenza pandemic can generate large numbers of critically ill patients in a short time. We modeled the number of mechanical ventilators that could be used in addition to the number of hospital-based ventilators currently in use. We identified key components of the healthcare system needed to deliver ventilation therapy, quantified the maximum number of additional ventilators that each key component could support at various capacity levels (i.e. conventional, contingency and crisis) and determined the constraining key component at each capacity level. Our study results showed that U.S. hospitals could absorb between 26,200 and 56,300 additional ventilators at the peak of a national influenza pandemic outbreak with robust pre-pandemic planning. This methodology could be adapted by emergency planners to determine stockpiling goals for critical resources or identify alternatives to manage overwhelming critical care need.