The demography of words: the global decline of non-numeric fertility preferences 1996–2011

摘要

This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of responses—such as “don’t know” or “it’s up to God”—have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women’s “calculus of conscious choice” (, p. 65), but have yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19 years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences appear to decline most substantially in the early stages of a country’s fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics that are associated with women’s likelihood of providing non-numeric responses to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.