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When the Heat Is On: The Effect of Temperature on Voter Behavior in Presidential Elections

机译:当热度上升时:温度对总统选举中选民行为的影响

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摘要

Hot temperatures lead to heightened arousal. According to excitation transfer theory, arousal can increase both antisocial and prosocial behavior, depending on the context. Although many studies have shown that hot temperatures can increase antisocial behavior, very few studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and prosocial behavior. One important prosocial behavior is voting. We analyzed state-level data from the United States presidential elections (N = 761). Consistent with excitation transfer theory, which proposes that heat-induced arousal can transfer to other activities and strengthen those activities, changes in temperature and voter turnout were positively related. Moreover, a positive change in temperature was related to a positive change in votes for the incumbent party. These findings add to the literature on the importance of non-ideological and non-rational factors that influence voting behavior.
机译:高温导致唤醒感增强。根据激发转移理论,唤醒可以增加反社会行为和亲社会行为,具体取决于上下文。尽管许多研究表明,高温会增加反社会行为,但很少有研究调查温度与亲社会行为之间的关系。一种重要的亲社会行为是投票。我们分析了美国总统选举(N = 761)的州级数据。与激发传递理论一致,该理论认为热诱发的唤醒可以传递给其他活动并增强这些活动,温度的变化和投票者的投票率呈正相关。此外,温度的正变化与在位政党的票数正变化有关。这些发现增加了影响投票行为的非意识形态和非理性因素的重要性的文献。

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