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Identification of influencers through the wisdom of crowds

机译:通过人群的智慧识别有影响力的人

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摘要

Identifying individuals who are influential in diffusing information, ideas or products in a population remains a challenging problem. Most extant work can be abstracted by a process in which researchers first decide which features describe an influencer and then identify them as the individuals with the highest values of these features. This makes the identification dependent on the relevance of the selected features and it still remains uncertain if triggering the identified influencers leads to a behavioral change in others. Furthermore, most work was developed for cross-sectional or time-aggregated datasets, where the time-evolution of influence processes cannot be observed. We show that mapping the influencer identification to a wisdom of crowds problem overcomes these limitations. We present a framework in which the individuals in a social group repeatedly evaluate the contribution of other members according to what they perceive as valuable and not according to predefined features. We propose a method to aggregate the behavioral reactions of the members of the social group into a collective judgment that considers the temporal variation of influence processes. Using data from three large news providers, we show that the members of the group surprisingly agree on who are the influential individuals. The aggregation method addresses different sources of heterogeneity encountered in social systems and leads to results that are easily interpretable and comparable within and across systems. The approach we propose is computationally scalable and can be applied to any social systems where behavioral reactions are observable.
机译:确定在人群中传播信息,思想或产品方面有影响力的个人仍然是一个具有挑战性的问题。大多数现存的工作可以通过一个过程来抽象,在该过程中,研究人员首先确定哪些特征描述了影响者,然后将其识别为具有这些特征的最高价值的个人。这使得识别取决于所选功能的相关性,并且仍然不确定是否触发识别出的影响者会导致其他行为改变。此外,大多数工作是针对横截面或时间汇总的数据集开发的,其中无法观察到影响过程的时间演变。我们表明,将影响者识别映射到人群问题的智慧可以克服这些限制。我们提出了一个框架,在该框架中,社会团体中的个人根据他们认为有价值的而不是根据预定义的功能反复评估其他成员的贡献。我们提出了一种将社会群体成员的行为反应汇总为考虑影响过程的时间变化的集体判断的方法。使用来自三家大型新闻提供商的数据,我们表明该小组的成员令人惊讶地同意谁是有影响力的个人。聚合方法解决了社会系统中遇到的异质性的不同来源,并导致在系统内和系统间易于解释和可比较的结果。我们提出的方法在计算上是可扩展的,并且可以应用于可观察到行为反应的任何社会系统。

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