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The impact of hypocrisy on opinion formation: A dynamic model

机译:虚伪对意见形成的影响:一个动态模型

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摘要

Humans have a demonstrated tendency to copy or imitate the behavior and attitude of others and actively influence each other’s opinions. In plenty of empirical contexts, publicly revealed opinions are not necessarily in line with internal opinions, causing complex social influence dynamics. We study to what extent hypocrisy is sustained during opinion formation and how hidden opinions change the convergence to consensus in a group. We build and analyze a modified version of the voter model with hypocrisy in a complete graph with a neutral competition between two alternatives. We compare the process from various initial conditions, varying the proportions between the two opinions in the external (revealed) and internal (hidden) layer. According to our results, hypocrisy always prolongs the time needed for reaching a consensus. In a complete graph, this time span increases linearly with group size. We find that the group-level opinion emerges in two steps: (1) a fast and directional process, during which the number of the two kinds of hypocrites equalizes; and (2) a slower, random drift of opinions. During stage (2), the ratio of opinions in the external layer is approximately equal to the ratio in the internal layer; that is, the hidden opinions do not differ significantly from the revealed ones at the group level. We furthermore find that the initial abundances of opinions, but not the initial prevalence of hypocrisy, predicts the mean consensus time and determines the opinions’ probabilities of winning. These insights highlight the unimportance of hypocrisy in consensus formation under neutral conditions. Our results have important societal implications in relation to hidden voter preferences in polls and improve our understanding of opinion formation in a more realistic setting than that of conventional voter models.
机译:人类倾向于复制或模仿他人的行为和态度,并积极影响彼此的观点。在许多经验背景下,公开披露的观点不一定与内部观点一致,从而导致复杂的社会影响动态。我们研究了在意见形成过程中虚伪行为在多大程度上得以维持以及隐藏的意见如何将群体中的共识收敛。我们在一个完整的图表中构建和分析了伪善的选民模型的修改版本,并且在两个选择之间存在中立竞争。我们从各种初始条件比较了该过程,并改变了外部(显示)和内部(隐藏)层中两种意见之间的比例。根据我们的结果,虚伪总是会延长达成共识所需的时间。在完整的图中,此时间跨度随组大小线性增加。我们发现群体层面的意见分两个步骤出现:(1)快速而定向的过程,在此过程中,两种伪君子的数量相等。 (2)较慢的,随机的意见漂移。在阶段(2)中,外层中的意见比例大约等于内层中的意见比例;也就是说,在小组级别,隐藏的观点与显示的观点没有显着差异。我们还发现,最初的观点丰富性(而不是虚伪的初步流行率)可以预测平均共识时间并确定观点获胜的可能性。这些见解突显了在中性条件下伪善在共识形成中的重要性。我们的结果与民意测验中隐藏的选民偏好有关,具有重要的社会意义,并且在比传统选民模型更现实的环境中提高了我们对观点形成的理解。

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