Development of Temporal Modeling for Forecasting and Prediction of the Incidence of Lychee Tessaratoma papillosa (Hemiptera: Tessaratomidae) Using Time-Series (ARIMA) Analysis

摘要

The most destructive enemy of the lychee, Litchi chinensis Sonn. (Sapindales: Sapindaceae), in India is a stink bug, Tessaratoma papillosa (Drury) (Hemiptera: Tessaratomidae). The population of T. papillosa on lychee trees varied from 1.43 ± 0.501 to 9.85 ± 3.924 insects per branch in this study. An increase in the temperature and a decrease in the relative humidity during summer months (April to July) favor the population buildup of T. papillosa. A forecasting model to predict T. papillosa incidences in lychee orchards was developed using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of time-series analysis. The best-fit model for the T. papillosa incidence was ARIMA (1,1), where the P-value was significant at 0.01. The highest T. papillosa incidences were predicted for April in 2010, January in 2011, May in 2012, and February in 2013. A model based on time series offers longer-term forecasting. The forecasting model, ARIMA (1,1), developed in this study will predict T. papillosa incidences in advance, thus providing functional guidelines for effective planning of timely prevention and control measures.