In the present study we attempt to use hypothesis-independent analysis in investigating the patterns in refraction growth in Chinese children, and to explore the possible risk factors affecting the different components of progression, as defined by Principal Component Analysis (PCA). A total of 637 first-born twins in Guangzhou Twin Eye Study with 6-year annual visits (baseline age 7–15 years) were available in the analysis. Cluster 1 to 3 were classified after a partitioning clustering, representing stable, slow and fast progressing groups of refraction respectively. Baseline age and refraction, paternal refraction, maternal refraction and proportion of two myopic parents showed significant differences across the three groups. Three major components of progression were extracted using PCA: “Average refraction”, “Acceleration” and the combination of “Myopia stabilization” and “Late onset of refraction progress”. In regression models, younger children with more severe myopia were associated with larger “Acceleration”. The risk factors of “Acceleration” included change of height and weight, near work, and parental myopia, while female gender, change of height and weight were associated with “Stabilization”, and increased outdoor time was related to “Late onset of refraction progress”. We therefore concluded that genetic and environmental risk factors have different impacts on patterns of refraction progression.
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