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Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics

机译:人为运动中季节性不对称的跨国模式影响传染病动态

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摘要

Seasonal variation in human mobility is globally ubiquitous and affects the spatial spread of infectious diseases, but the ability to measure seasonality in human movement has been limited by data availability. Here, we use mobile phone data to quantify seasonal travel and directional asymmetries in Kenya, Namibia, and Pakistan, across a spectrum from rural nomadic populations to highly urbanized communities. We then model how the geographic spread of several acute pathogens with varying life histories could depend on country-wide connectivity fluctuations through the year. In all three countries, major national holidays are associated with shifts in the scope of travel. Within this broader pattern, the relative importance of particular routes also fluctuates over the course of the year, with increased travel from rural to urban communities after national holidays, for example. These changes in travel impact how fast communities are likely to be reached by an introduced pathogen.
机译:人类活动性的季节性变化在全球范围内普遍存在,并影响传染病的空间传播,但是测量人类活动性季节性的能力受到数据可用性的限制。在这里,我们使用手机数据量化了从农村游牧人口到高度城市化社区的整个肯尼亚,纳米比亚和巴基斯坦的季节性旅行和方向性不对称性。然后,我们对具有不同生活史的几种急性病原体的地理分布如何建模,取决于一年中全国范围内的连通性波动。在这三个国家中,主要的国定假日与旅行范围的变化有关。在这种更广泛的模式下,特定路线的相对重要性也在一年中波动,例如,在国定假日后,从乡村到城市社区的出行增加。出行中的这些变化影响引入的病原体可能达到多快的群落。

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