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Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

机译:高二氧化碳排放情景中潜在的气候工程有效性和副作用

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摘要

The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited.
机译:迄今为止,人们一直认为减少二氧化碳排放的缓解措施是无效的,这导致人们对气候工程越来越感兴趣,因为气候工程是防止气候变化潜在灾难性后果的一种可能方法。尽管许多研究已经探讨了单个方法的潜在有效性,但几乎没有尝试将它们进行比较。在这里,我们使用地球系统模型比较高二氧化碳排放情景下造林,人工海洋上升,海洋铁肥,海洋碱化和太阳辐射管理的有效性和副作用。我们发现,即使连续应用并且以目前认为可能的最大规模使用,所有方法单独地或者相对无效,且降温幅度有限(<8%),或者它们具有潜在的严重副作用,无法在不引起快速发展的情况下被停止气候变化。我们的模拟表明,这些类型的气候工程来弥补缓解失败的潜力可能非常有限。

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