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Calibrated Birth–Death Phylogenetic Time-Tree Priors for Bayesian Inference

机译:贝叶斯推断的校准出生-死亡系统发生时间树先验

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摘要

Here we introduce a general class of multiple calibration birth–death tree priors for use in Bayesian phylogenetic inference. All tree priors in this class separate ancestral node heights into a set of “calibrated nodes” and “uncalibrated nodes” such that the marginal distribution of the calibrated nodes is user-specified whereas the density ratio of the birth–death prior is retained for trees with equal values for the calibrated nodes. We describe two formulations, one in which the calibration information informs the prior on ranked tree topologies, through the (conditional) prior, and the other which factorizes the prior on divergence times and ranked topologies, thus allowing uniform, or any arbitrary prior distribution on ranked topologies. Although the first of these formulations has some attractive properties, the algorithm we present for computing its prior density is computationally intensive. However, the second formulation is always faster and computationally efficient for up to six calibrations. We demonstrate the utility of the new class of multiple-calibration tree priors using both small simulations and a real-world analysis and compare the results to existing schemes. The two new calibrated tree priors described in this article offer greater flexibility and control of prior specification in calibrated time-tree inference and divergence time dating, and will remove the need for indirect approaches to the assessment of the combined effect of calibration densities and tree priors in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
机译:在这里,我们介绍了用于贝叶斯系统发生推断的多重校准先验-死亡树先验的一般类别。此类中的所有树先验将祖先节点的高度分为一组“已校准节点”和“未校准节点”,以便用户指定已校准节点的边际分布,而保留树木的生死先验密度比校准节点的值相等。我们描述了两种表达方式,一种是校准信息通过(有条件的)先验通知先验的树状拓扑结构,另一种是将先验的发散时间和经排序的拓扑因子分解,从而允许均匀分布或任意的先验分布。排名的拓扑。尽管这些公式中的第一个具有一些吸引人的特性,但是我们目前用于计算其先验密度的算法在计算上是密集的。但是,对于最多六个校准,第二个公式总是更快,计算效率更高。我们使用小型仿真和真实世界分析来演示新型多校准树先验的实用性,并将结果与​​现有方案进行比较。本文中介绍的两种新的校准树先验技术在校准时间树推论和发散时间测年中提供了更大的灵活性和对先验规范的控制,并且不再需要间接方法来评估校准密度和树先验技术的组合效果在贝叶斯系统发生推断中。

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