Response to Comment on How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?

摘要

Goebel et al. question our forecasted response of induced seismicity to reduction of saltwater injection rates in north-central Oklahoma and raise the concern that “the probability of future damaging earthquakes may be underestimated.” We compare our prediction to earthquake data recorded in the 8 months after publication. Observed seismicity rates and magnitudes agree with the forecast of our model. Our use of a probabilistic model accounts for uncertainties and observed M ≥ 4.5 to date confirm the conservative nature of our prediction. The “realistic parameter range” suggested by Goebel et al. is based on a misunderstanding of our statistical model and disagrees with the long-term decay of seismicity in the region.