Safety assessment of petrochemical enterprise using the cloud model PHA–LOPA and the bow-tie model

摘要

Safe production is the foundation of the normal operations of petrochemical enterprises, and it helps maintain social stability. The main purpose of this study is to prevent petrochemical enterprise accidents by proposing a composite safety assessment approach based on the cloud model, preliminary hazard analysis–layer of protection analysis (PHA–LOPA) and the bow-tie model. First, the petrochemical enterprise and its relevant indicators were evaluated based on the cloud model. Second, the quantitative effect of the uncertainty transformation on the evaluation result of the cloud model was further analysed. This mainly includes the error analysis of the numerical characteristics under the conditions of few samples and small values. Third, the critical indicators such as shock and noise can be weakened and prevented by corresponding safety measures based on PHA–LOPA and the bow-tie model. After adopting two independent protection layers, the risk levels of shock and noise decrease from 3 to 2. Then, shock and noise were analysed in depth with the bow-tie model, and the causes and consequences were identified. Moreover, corresponding safety measures were taken to prevent accidents. The case study validated the validity and feasibility of the composite safety assessment approach proposed here.