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Southern Annular Mode drives multicentury wildfire activity in southern South America

机译:南部环形模式推动了南美南部多个世纪的野火活动

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摘要

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of climate variability at mid to high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, affecting wildfire activity, which in turn pollutes the air and contributes to human health problems and mortality, and potentially provides strong feedback to the climate system through emissions and land cover changes. Here we report the largest Southern Hemisphere network of annually resolved tree ring fire histories, consisting of 1,767 fire-scarred trees from 97 sites (from 22 °S to 54 °S) in southern South America (SAS), to quantify the coupling of SAM and regional wildfire variability using recently created multicentury proxy indices of SAM for the years 1531–2010 AD. We show that at interannual time scales, as well as at multidecadal time scales across 37–54 °S, latitudinal gradient elevated wildfire activity is synchronous with positive phases of the SAM over the years 1665–1995. Positive phases of the SAM are associated primarily with warm conditions in these biomass-rich forests, in which widespread fire activity depends on fuel desiccation. Climate modeling studies indicate that greenhouse gases will force SAM into its positive phase even if stratospheric ozone returns to normal levels, so that climate conditions conducive to widespread fire activity in SAS will continue throughout the 21st century.
机译:南半球环形模式(SAM)是南半球中高纬度地区气候变化的主要驱动力,影响野火活动,进而污染空气并导致人类健康问题和死亡,并有可能向人类提供强大的反馈气候系统通过排放和土地覆盖变化。在这里,我们报告了最大的南半球年分解树环火灾历史网络,其中包括来自南美南部(SAS)97个站点(从22°S到54°S)的1,767棵火烧红树,以量化SAM的耦合。使用最近创建的SAM多世纪代理指数(公元1531-2010年)来确定区域和野火的变化性。我们表明,在跨年际尺度以及跨37-54°S的十年年代尺度上,纬向梯度梯度升高的野火活动与1665-1995年间SAM的正相同步。在这些生物量丰富的森林中,SAM的正相主要与温暖的条件有关,其中广泛的火灾活动取决于燃料的干燥。气候模型研究表明,即使平流层臭氧恢复到正常水平,温室气体也将迫使SAM进入正相,因此,有利于SAS广泛开展火灾活动的气候条件将持续整个21世纪。

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