Reconstruction of the dynamics of the climatic system from time-series data

摘要

The oxygen isotope record of the last million years, as provided by a deep sea core sediment, is analyzed by a method recently developed in the theory of dynamical systems. The analysis suggests that climatic variability is the manifestation of a chaotic dynamics described by an attractor of fractal dimensionality. A quantitative measure of the limited predictability of the climatic system is provided by the evaluation of the time-correlation function and the largest positive Lyapounov exponent of the system.