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Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus

机译:错误是导致后期死亡率下降和平稳的主要原因

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摘要

Several organisms, including humans, display a deceleration in mortality rates at advanced ages. This mortality deceleration is sufficiently rapid to allow late-life mortality to plateau in old age in several species, causing the apparent cessation of biological ageing. Here, it is shown that late-life mortality deceleration (LLMD) and late-life plateaus are caused by common demographic errors. Age estimation and cohort blending errors introduced at rates below 1 in 10,000 are sufficient to cause LLMD and plateaus. In humans, observed error rates of birth and death registration predict the magnitude of LLMD. Correction for these sources of demographic error using a mixed linear model eliminates LLMD and late-life mortality plateaus (LLMPs) without recourse to biological or evolutionary models. These results suggest models developed to explain LLMD have been fitted to an error distribution, that ageing does not slow or stop during old age in humans, and that there is a finite limit to human longevity.
机译:包括人类在内的几种生物体在高龄时死亡率下降。这种死亡率的下降速度足够快,足以使几种物种的晚年死亡率达到高龄,从而导致生物衰老的明显停止。在此显示,晚期死亡率减速(LLMD)和晚期平稳期是由常见的人口统计误差引起的。以低于10,000的比率的1引入的年龄估计和队列混合错误足以引起LLMD和平稳期。在人类中,观察到的出生和死亡登记错误率预测了LLMD的大小。使用混合线性模型对这些人口统计学误差源进行的校正消除了LLMD和后期死亡率平稳期(LLMP),而无需求助于生物学或进化模型。这些结果表明,为解释LLMD而开发的模型已拟合到误差分布,人类的衰老过程不会延缓或停止,并且人类的寿命受到有限的限制。

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