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How absolute is zero? An evaluation of historical and current definitions of malaria elimination

机译:零的绝对值是多少?对消除疟疾的历史和当前定义的评价

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摘要

Decisions to eliminate malaria from all or part of a country involve a complex set of factors, and this complexity is compounded by ambiguity surrounding some of the key terminology, most notably "control" and "elimination." It is impossible to forecast resource and operational requirements accurately if endpoints have not been defined clearly, yet even during the Global Malaria Eradication Program, debate raged over the precise definition of "eradication." Analogous deliberations regarding the meaning of "elimination" and "control" are basically nonexistent today despite these terms' core importance to programme planning. To advance the contemporary debate about these issues, this paper presents a historical review of commonly used terms, including control, elimination, and eradication, to help contextualize current understanding of these concepts. The review has been supported by analysis of the underlying mathematical concepts on which these definitions are based through simple branching process models that describe the proliferation of malaria cases following importation. Through this analysis, the importance of pragmatic definitions that are useful for providing malaria control and elimination programmes with a practical set of strategic milestones is emphasized, and it is argued that current conceptions of elimination in particular fail to achieve these requirements. To provide all countries with precise targets, new conceptual definitions are suggested to more precisely describe the old goals of "control" - here more exactly named "controlled low-endemic malaria" - and "elimination." Additionally, it is argued that a third state, called "controlled non-endemic malaria," is required to describe the epidemiological condition in which endemic transmission has been interrupted, but malaria resulting from onwards transmission from imported infections continues to occur at a sufficiently high level that elimination has not been achieved. Finally, guidelines are discussed for deriving the separate operational definitions and metrics that will be required to make these concepts relevant, measurable, and achievable for a particular environment.
机译:从一个国家的全部或部分地区消除疟疾的决定涉及一系列复杂的因素,而围绕一些关键术语(最明显的是“控制”和“消除”)的歧义又加剧了这种复杂性。如果没有明确定义终点,就不可能准确预测资源和业务需求,但是即使在“全球消除疟疾计划”期间,也对“消除”的确切定义进行了激烈的辩论。尽管“消除”和“控制”的含义对程序规划具有核心重要性,但如今基本上不存在类似的讨论。为了推动有关这些问题的当代辩论,本文对包括控制,消除和根除在内的常用术语进行了历史回顾,以帮助将当前对这些概念的理解背景化。该审查得到了对基础数学概念的分析的支持,这些数学概念的定义基于简单的分支过程模型,这些模型描述了进口后疟疾病例的扩散。通过这一分析,强调了务实的定义的重要性,这些定义对于为疟疾控制和消除计划提供切实可行的战略里程碑是有用的,并且有人认为,当前的消除观念尤其不能满足这些要求。为了向所有国家提供精确的目标,建议使用新的概念定义来更精确地描述“控制”(此处更确切地称为“控制的低流行性疟疾”)和“消除”的旧目标。另外,有人认为需要第三种状态,称为“非控制性流行性疟疾”来描述流行病学状况,在这种情况下,地方病传播已被中断,但由进口感染继续传播所引起的疟疾仍以足够高的比例发生没有达到消除的水平。最后,讨论了用于导出单独的操作定义和度量标准的准则,这些定义和度量标准对于使这些概念与特定环境相关,可测量和可实现而言是必需的。

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