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Estimation of the Ecological Fallacy in the Geographical Analysis of the Association of Socio-Economic Deprivation and Cancer Incidence

机译:社会经济剥夺与癌症发病率关联的地理分析中的生态谬误估计

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摘要

Ecological deprivation indices at the level of spatial units are often used to measure and monitor inequalities in health despite the possibility of ecological fallacy. For the purpose of this study, the European Deprivation Index (EDI) was used, which is based on Townsend theorization of relative deprivation. The Slovenian version of EDI (SI-EDI) at the aggregated level (SI-EDI-A) was calculated to the level of the national assembly polling stations. The SI-EDI was also calculated at the individual level (SI-EDI-I) by the method that represents a methodological innovation. The degree of ecological fallacy was estimated with the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves. By calculating the area under the ROC curve, the ecological fallacy was evaluated numerically. Agreement between measuring deprivation with SI-EDI-A and SI-EDI-I was analysed by graphical methods and formal testing. The association of the socio-economic status and the cancer risk was analysed in all first cancer cases diagnosed in Slovenia at age 16 and older in the period 2011–2013. Analysis was done for each level separately, for SI-EDI-I and for SI-EDI-A. The Poisson regression model was implemented in both settings but adapted specifically for aggregated and individual data. The study clearly shows that ecological fallacy is unavoidable. However, although the association of cancer incidence and socio-economic deprivation at individual and aggregated levels was not the same for all cancer sites, the results were very similar for the majority of investigated cancer sites and especially for cancers associated with unhealthy lifestyles. The results confirm the assumptions from authors’ previous research that using the level of the national assembly polling stations would be the acceptable way to aggregate data when explaining inequalities in health in Slovenia in ecological studies.
机译:尽管存在生态谬误的可能性,但通常使用空间单位水平的生态剥夺指数来衡量和监测健康方面的不平等。出于本研究的目的,使用了欧洲贫困指数(EDI),该指数基于Townsend相对贫困理论。斯洛文尼亚版EDI(SI-EDI)的总水平(SI-EDI-A)计算为国民议会投票站的水平。 SI-EDI也通过代表方法创新的方法在个人级别(SI-EDI-I)进行计算。生态谬误的程度由接收者工作特征(ROC)曲线估算。通过计算ROC曲线下的面积,对生态谬误进行了数值评估。通过图形方法和形式测试分析了用SI-EDI-A和SI-EDI-I测量剥夺之间的一致性。在2011-2013年期间,对在斯洛文尼亚诊断为16岁及以上的所有首例癌症病例的社会经济状况与癌症风险之间的关联进行了分析。针对SI-EDI-I和SI-EDI-A的每个级别分别进行了分析。泊松回归模型在两种设置中均已实现,但专门针对汇总和单个数据进行了调整。研究清楚表明,生态谬误是不可避免的。但是,尽管对于所有癌症位点来说,癌症发生率与社会经济剥夺在个体和总体水平上的关联并不相同,但对于大多数调查的癌症位点,尤其是与不良生活方式相关的癌症,其结果非常相似。结果证实了作者先前研究的假设,即在解释生态研究中斯洛文尼亚的健康不平等时,使用国民议会投票站的水平是汇总数据的可接受方法。

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