>Objective: Higher body–mass index (BMI) and lower birth weight (BW) are associated with elevated risk of diabetes in adulthood, but the extent to which they compose two distinct pathways is unclear.>Methods: We used data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, a cohort of adolescents (1994–1995) followed for 14 years over four waves into adulthood (n = 13,413). Sex-stratified path analysis was used to examine pathways from BW [kg; linear (BW) and quadratic (BW2)] to latent trajectories in BMI from adolescence to adulthood to prevalent diabetes or prediabetes (pre/diabetes) in adulthood, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics.>Results: Two pathways from BW to pre/diabetes were characterized: one from higher BW to elevated BMI and pre/diabetes and a second from lower BW, independent of BMI. In the BMI-independent pathway, greater BW was associated with marginally lower odds of pre/diabetes in women, but not men. Girls born at lower and higher BW exhibited elevated BMI in adolescence [coeff (95% CI): BW: −2.1 (−4.1, −0.05); BW2: 0.43 (0.09, 0.76)]; higher BW predicted marginally faster BMI gain and higher adolescent BMI and faster BMI gain were associated with pre/diabetes [coeff (95% CI): BMI intercept: 0.09 (0.06, 0.11); BMI slope: 0.11 (0.07, 0.15)]. In boys, BW was weakly associated with BMI intercept and slope; BMI slope, but not BMI intercept, was positively associated with pre/diabetes [coeff (95% CI): 0.29 (0.19, 0.39)].>Conclusions: Findings suggest that in girls, slowing BMI gain is critical for diabetes prevention, yet it may not address distinct pathology stemming from early life.
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