Spline-based modelling of trends in the force of HIV infection with application to the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package

摘要

ObjectiveWe previously developed a flexible specification of the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that relied on splines to generate time-varying values for the force of infection parameter. Here, we test the feasibility of this approach for concentrated HIV/AIDS epidemics with very sparse data and compare two methods for making short-term future projections with the spline-based model.