Air pollution and daily mortality in Sydney Australia 1989 through 1993.

摘要

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the effects of outdoor air pollutants in Sydney, Australia, on daily mortality. METHODS: Time-series analysis was performed on counts of daily mortality and major outdoor air pollutants (particulates, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide) in Sydney (1989 to 1993) with adjustment for seasonal and cyclical factors. Poisson regression was calculated with allowance for overdispersion and autocorrelation. The effects of lagging exposure by 0 to 2 days were assessed with single- and multiple-pollutant models. RESULTS: An increase in daily mean particulate concentration from the 10th to the 90th centile was associated with an increase of 2.63% (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 4.41) in all-cause mortality and 2.68% (0.25 to 5.16) in cardiovascular mortality. An increase in daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentration from the 10th to the 90th centile was associated with an increase of 2.04% (0.37 to 3.73) in all-cause mortality and 2.52% (-0.25 to 5.38) in cardiovascular mortality. An increase in the daily mean nitrogen dioxide concentration from the 10th to the 90th centile was associated with an increase of 7.71% (-0.34 to 16.40) in respiratory mortality. Multiple-pollutant models suggest that the effects of particulates and ozone on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and of nitrogen dioxide on respiratory mortality, are independent of the effects of the other pollutants. CONCLUSIONS: Current levels of air pollution in Sydney are associated with daily mortality.