提高配电网短期负荷预测准确率的研究

摘要

以镇海电网作为研究对象，将影响电网负荷的外界因素量化为特征向量，并修正了最高温度，采用相似日选择法选取与待预测日相似程度最高的日期作为输入样本，通过灰色系统的计算得到负荷预测值。通过对镇海电网工作日和节假日分别进行负荷预测分析，验证了此方法的实用性和有效性。%This paper investigates on Zhenhai power grid and quantifies external factors that influence grid load as characteristic vectors. Furthermore, it corrects the maximum temperature, adopts the date which is very well similar to the forecast day as the forecast day by using similar day selection method and concludes load forecast value by grey system calculation. By forecast and analysis on load in working day and festivals and holidays, practicality and effectiveness of the method are verified.