基于运城市1961—2010年的年平均气温和降水量实测数据，运用Mann－Kendall趋势检验和线性回归法对其进行了分析，并结合SDSM模型分析了未来两种气候情景下年平均气温和降水量的变化趋势。结果表明：①运城市50 a来年平均气温呈显著上升趋势，且1990年之后的年平均气温明显高于1990年前的，降水量呈下降趋势，但1991—2010年变化趋势较为平缓；②未来两种气候情景下，年平均气温和降水量基本呈上升（增加）趋势，且累计增长率也呈逐渐增大趋势，与B2情景相比，A2情景下年平均气温的增幅更大。%Based on measured data of Yuncheng Meteorological Station from 1961 to 2010,the changing trend of average temperature and precipita-tion in the future were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method combined with SDSM model under A2 and B2 scenarios. The results show that a)the average temperature presents a significant upward trend in the past 50 years,and after 1990,the average temperature is significantly higher than before,the precipitation presents decreasing trend in the past 50 years,but the changing trend is slow after 1990 and;b) under A2 and B2 scenarios in the future,the average temperature and precipitation present increasing trend,and the cumulative growth rate also shows the increasing trend at the same time. Compared with B2 scenarios,the rise of average temperature under A2 scenarios is bigger.
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