MIKE SHE水文模型参数的不确定性研究

摘要

In the process of building a model,some basin feature parameters are expressed inaccurately. It is an important way to construct model and estimate the uncertainty parameter for evaluating the uncertainty of the overall output. It used the runoff data of the Dongdaqiao Hydrological Station in Guishui River basin as the research object to estimate the uncertainty of runoff parameters. The results show that the parameters of larger uncertainty include PER,SP,C1,C2,C3 and the smaller parameters include KsF,KsI,IT and TD. More than 50%observations in calibration period fall into the corresponding uncertainty bounds,suggesting a similar level of model performance. The simula-tion results are better corresponded with the measured flow,but still need to be improved for higher accuracy.%为了估测水文模型的不确定性参数特征，更准确地构建水文模型，利用妫水河流域东大桥水文站径流资料，对MIKE SHE模型参数进行了不确定性分析。结果表明：选取的参数中不确定性较大的为水平传导系数、壤中流下渗常量、壤中流给水度、壤中流渗透阈值，不确定性较小的为山林地及平原耕地的饱和渗透系数、蒸散发经验系数；模型模拟结果与实测数据符合较好，校核期有55％的实测数据落入模拟径流量的置信区间内，但模拟精度仍有待提高。