水资源系统脆弱性的评价方法及其应用

摘要

This paper used fuzzy pattern recognition method to evaluate the vulnerability of water systems of China and selected set of analysis and projection pursuit method to compare with it and verify its accuracy and reasonableness. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate water resources system vulnerability of China under current conditions. The results show that water resources are affected by geographical, ecological environment, climate change, social development and a series of irrational development measures. It appears vulnerability in varying degrees. The vulnerabilities of the Haihe River and the Yellow River are more serious than that of other areas, which should be paid more attention. The result of the fuzzy pattern evaluation method is the same as other two methods, which proves its reasonable of index weight determination and the reliability of evaluation result. The fuzzy pattern recognition method conforms to the present characteristics of water resources of China and can arouse more attentions to water resources vulnerability.%采用模糊模式识别法对全国水资源系统脆弱性进行评价，同时采用集对分析法和投影寻踪法与其进行对比，验证模糊模式识别法评价结果的准确性和合理性，系统评价现状条件下全国水资源系统的脆弱性。结果表明：全国水资源受到地理位置、生态环境、气候变化、社会发展以及一系列不合理开发措施的影响，出现不同程度的脆弱性，其中海河区和黄河区脆弱性最为严重，应引起高度重视。模糊模式识别法与集对分析法和投影寻踪法的评价结果基本一致，证明了模糊模式识别法评价指标权重确定的合理性和评价结果的可靠性，其评价结果更符合我国水资源现状特征，更能引起人们对水资源脆弱性的重视。