进入21世纪以来，黄河中游产水产沙环境发生显著变化，潼关站实测来沙量大幅减少。在中游来沙减少和小浪底水库调水调沙运用的条件下，进入下游的泥沙主要集中在大流量洪水期，其他时段进入下游的水流以清水小流量为主。研究建立了不同时段下游河道冲淤量与水沙量的关系，计算了未来可能水沙条件下下游河道的冲淤趋势。结果表明：在未来年来沙量2亿～3亿t、来水量220亿～250亿m3时，利用4000 m3／s左右大流量输沙，基本可以维持下游河道主槽不萎缩。%Since the 21st century, the water and sediment yield environment of the middle Yellow River basin has been changed significantly. The incoming sediment amounts of Tongguan Station have been reduced greatly. Under the conditions of the incoming sediment reduction and the regulation operation of Xiaolangdi Reservoir, the sediment discharged into the low Yellow River is concentrated with large flow in flood periods, during other periods the flow is small and clear. In this paper, the relations had been established between the amount of erosion and deposition and the incoming water and sediment in the different periods, in order to predict the erosion and deposition trend in the low Yellow River in the future.Calculations show that,transporting the sediment with large discharge about 4 000 m3/s,the river channel of the lower Yellow River should be maintained with incoming 0.2-0.3 billion tons sediment and 22-25 billion m3 water in the future.
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