为研究气候变化和人为因素影响下长江入海口径流的变化趋势，采用长江大通水文站1950~2009年逐日平均流量资料，运用Pettitt突变点检验法，对年、枯季、洪季、汛后及逐月平均流量序列进行突变点分析。利用突变点对时段平均流量序列进行分段，并采用M-K趋势性检验法分析各段及整体序列的变化趋势。结果表明，长江年平均入海径流量序列在20世纪50年代中期、70年代末期、80年代末期和21世纪初，均发生了一定的突变，但突变趋势并不显著。%To study the variation of runoff trend in Yangtze River Estuary under the influence of climate change and human fac-tors, based on the daily-averaged discharges of Datong Station on Yangtze River, Pettitt mutability point tests are employed to detect the mutability point of discharge series in a year, dry season, flood season, flood recession period and each month, respec-tively. The average discharge series are divided into several segments by mutability points. The tendency of discharges of each segment or as a whole is explored by Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the mutation point of annual discharge series into the sea appeared in middle 50s, late 70s and 80s of 20th Century, and early 21st Century; however, the mutation trend is not obvious.
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