基于贝叶斯网络的技术合作创新项目风险评价

摘要

To improve the risk management level of important projects, the Bayesian network technology is introduced into the risk assessment of cooperation innovation works of foundation grouting technology in important hydropower projects. In the assess-ment, firstly, the expert knowledge was made full use of, so as to deduce and assess the risk; then the prior information was modified by posterior probability distribution from the sampling data, and the risk of foundation grouting technology cooperation innovation works of important hydropower project can be evaluated and forecasted dynamically and accurately. Combining with an engineering example, the occurrence probabilities of cooperative technology innovation under different risks were predicted, and the most likely risk factors were also diagnosed and inferred. The research results can provide a new way for dynamic evaluation of important engineering project risk.%为提高重大工程项目的风险管理水平，将贝叶斯网络引入到重大水电工程基础灌浆技术合作创新项目的风险评价中，充分利用专家先验知识进行风险的推理评价，并根据现场采样数据所得到的后验概率分布对先验信息进行修正以动态地对技术合作创新项目风险作出较准确的预测评价。结合工程实例，预测了不同风险因素情况下技术合作创新风险的发生概率，及其最有可能的致险因素等，可为重大工程项目风险的动态评价提供一种新的方法与途径。