基于临界雨量的山洪灾害预警技术试验研究

摘要

To study the forecasting and early-warning technology for mountain torrent disasters, Linxiang City Hunan Province is selected as an experimental area. The quantified forecast for precipitation was performed by WRF numerical prediction model in consideration with the newest quantified precipitation forecast technology at home and abroad, and the rainfall threshold in each sub-warning area is provided by the statistical analysis method. We proposed 3-grade early-warning solutions for mountain torrent disasters, including internal warning, transfer preparation and immediate transfer, based on rainfall threshold, measured rainfall and forecasted rainfall. This early -warning project was tested in flood season ( May to September) in 2014, and no warning threshold was reached over that period for mountain torrent disasters, which was in good agreement with the actual condi-tions. The calculation method of rainfall threshold and the early-warning project for mountain torrent disasters are feasible in the experimental area.%为研究适用的山洪灾害预报预警技术，选定湖南临湘市为试验区，应用统计分析法拟定试验区各预警分区的临界雨量值，并采用当前国内外最新的定量降雨预报技术，引入WRF数值预报模式开展了定量降雨预报。在综合考虑试验区临界雨量、实测雨量和预报雨量基础上，提出了针对山洪灾害的三级预警技术应用方案(“内部告警”、“准备转移”及“立即转移”)。2014年汛期(5~9月)对该方案进行了实时试验。试验结果表明，该时段并未出现符合山洪预警条件的现象，与实际灾害灾情报告一致。针对试验区的临界雨量拟定及山洪预警技术应用方案适用可行，可为类似山洪灾害防治地区提供借鉴。