山洪预警WRF模式不同物理方案组合对比试验

摘要

To obtain the optimal combination of physical schemes for the forecast of mountain torrent disaster precipitation, on the basis of WRF model, the historic mountain flood process occurred in Yangtze River Basin was simulated by using different combinations of physical schemes, and the results were compared, analyzed and checked. The forecast ability for precipitation of all magnitudes using different combinations was evaluated by TS verification and an optimal physical process was obtained. It shows that the simulated rainfall gets the most close to observed data when the micro-physical parameter adopts WSM6 and the convection parameter adopts Kfeta, so this scheme is the most stable. It demonstrates that the reasonable selection of combination of physical schemes is the key to gaining better forecast results.%为了获得致灾山洪降水预报的最佳物理方案组合,基于WRF模式,采用不同物理方案组合对长江流域历史山洪过程,进行了对比试验和检验。采用TS评分法,评估了不同试验方案对各量级降水的预报能力,综合得出了最佳物理过程。结果表明：微物理参数化采用WSM6,对流参数化采用Kfeta模拟的雨带范围和降水强度与实况吻合的最好,预报效果最稳定。证明了物理模式的合理选择对山洪预报结果影响较大。