基于GLUE的垂向混合产流模型参数不确定性分析

摘要

Hydrological model can generalize the complicated hydrological phenomenon and processes, and the uncertainty of hydrological models is one of the important directions of the model research.Based on the 5 years' runoff data of Luohe River Basin in semi-humid area, we established a vertical mixed runoff hydrological model and analyzed its uncertainty by using GLUE method and combining with 5 relevant indicators.The results show that in uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization for the vertical mixed runoff model by GLUE method, under the confidence level of 95%, the model forecast interval coverage reaches 87.5%, the parameter S and T are closed to 0, which means that the simulated data have great degree of symmetry.%水文模型能将复杂的水文现象和过程进行概化,其不确定性研究已成为模型研究的重要方向之一.以半湿润地区洛河流域为研究区域,构建了基于垂向混合产流模型的流域产流模拟模型,采用GLUE方法并结合5项相关指标对构建的模型进行不确定性分析.结果表明:使用GLUE方法对垂向混合产流模型进行不确定性评估和参数优选过程中,在置信度为95%的前提下,模型预报区间的覆盖率达到87.5%,对称度S和T接近于0,数据模拟对称度良好.