基于对油藏数值模拟技术的已有认识，通过调研国外页岩气藏数值模拟技术新进展，对该技术在我国页岩气藏开发中的应用进行了展望。调研结果表明，对天然裂缝和水力压裂裂缝组成的复杂裂缝网络系统和页岩气渗流特征的准确表征是做好该类气藏模拟的关键所在，而天然裂缝渗透率、基质-裂缝耦合因子、水力压裂裂缝参数等对页岩气藏产能模拟敏感性最为强烈，是历史拟合的可调参数。通过页岩气藏数值模拟，可对页岩气井生产动态预测、剩余储量分布、页岩气藏加密钻井、水力压裂及二次压裂施工等提供有益的参考。%Based on the existing knowledge of numerical simulation technology for oil reservoir, the investigation of new advances of the technology of shale gas reservoirs abroad are conducted, by which the outlook or prospect of the technological application in domestic shale gas development is made. The investigation results show that exact characterization of the complicated fracture network system composed of natural cracks and hydraulic fractures and the shale gas seepage feature is the key to well accomplishment of such a gas reservoir simula- tion. Natural fracture permeability, matrix-crack coupling factor, hydraulic fracture parameters are the factors that are most sensitive to the shale gas reservoir productivity simulation as the adjustable parameters in history matching. Making shale gas reservoir numerical simula- tion can provide the beneficial reference for prediction of the shale gas well production performance, remaining shale gas reserves distribu- tion, infill drilling, hydraulic fracturing and secondary fracturing operation, etc.
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