伊犁马1600m短途竞速比赛评分负磅规则研究

摘要

[Objective] This paper analyzes the relation between relative body length,relative time and negative weight in the 1,600 m speed race,and preliminarily studies the handicap rule of Yili horse 1,600 m speed race.[Method]This study took 8 3-4 year old Yili horse as the research object,and carried on the 1,600 m speed race test,and horses in each race were 0 kg,0.5 kg,1 kg,1.5 kg,2 kg,2.5 kg,3 kg,3.5kg,4 kg,4.5 kg,5 kg,11 weight allowance,and this trial was repeated for each scale to analyze the relation between the relative body length,the relative time used,the score and the handicap in the race.[Result] Through the univariate analysis of the factorrs affecting the performance of the general linear model,it was found that the handicap had a significant influence on the result of competition (P ＜0.01),and other factorrs had no significant difference in the racing(P ＞ 0.05).By comparing the differences between the scores of the horses,and the difference of the lengths and the different time,it was found that there were most significant or significant differences (P ＜0.01 or P ＜0.05).By the correlation analysis among the handicaps,the lengths and the difference time in the racing,it was found that the handicap,lengths and the difference time was positively correlated with the difference (P ＜0.01).Through the regression model among the handicap,lengths and the difference time,it was found that the linear equations had great significance (P ＜ 0.01).[Conclusion] By establishing regression model,we find that the linear regression equation between negative pound and time difference was y =1.973 x,the linear regression equation between lengths and the difference time was y =0.230 x.Based on the regression model,the handicap can be calculated by the difference time between the lengths and the difference of the preceding tournament.By simulating comparing the variation coefficient of condition races and handicap race,the coefficient of variation of the handicap race is significantly lower than that of the condition races tournament.By comparing the use of the head (tail) horse and the intermediate horse as the reference to the horse effect,the use of intermediate horses as a reference horse can effectively enlarge the maximum score difference.%[目的]分析1600m速度赛中相对马身、相对用时、成绩及负磅之间的关系,并研究伊犁马1600m速度赛评分负磅规则.[方法]以8匹3～4岁伊犁马为研究对象,进行1600m速度赛测试,每场比赛马匹分别负磅0、0.5、1、1.5、2、2.5、3、3.5、4、4.5和5 kg共11个负磅等级,并对每个负磅等级进行重复试验两次,分析比赛中相对马身、相对用时、成绩及负磅之间的关系.[结果]负磅因素对比赛成绩影响极显著(P＜0.01),其余各因素对比赛成绩无显著影响(P＞0.05);通过对比不同负磅时马匹成绩、相差马身、相差时间的差异性分析,发现不同负磅时均存在极显著或显著的差异(P ＜0.01 0r P＜0.05);通过对负磅、相差马身与相差时间分别进行相关性分析发现,负磅、相差马身与相差时间之间均呈极显著正相关关系(P＜0.01);通过建立负磅、相差马身与相差时间之间的回归模型发现,所求各方程均具有极显著意义(P＜0.01).[结论]负磅与相差时间之间线性回归方程为y=1.973x负磅,相差马身与相差时间之间线性回归方程为y=0.230x马身;通过回归模型,由前场赛事相差马身、相差时间可以推算出当场负磅值;通过模拟对比平磅赛事和让磅赛事的同场赛成绩的变异系数,让磅比赛变异系数显著低于平磅赛事;通过对比使用头(尾)马和中间马作为参照马效果时,使用中间马作为参照马可以有效地扩大最大评分差.