Nomogram to predict postoperative complications in elderly with total hip replacement

摘要

BACKGROUND By analyzing the risk factors of postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip replacement,We aimed to develop a nomogram model based on preoperative and intraoperative variables and verified the sensitivity and specificity for risk stratification of postoperative complications in elderly with total hip replacement patients.AIM To develop a nomogram model for risk stratification of postoperative complications in elderly with total hip replacement patients.METHODS A total of 414 elderly patients who underwent surgical treatment for total hip replacement hospitalized at the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University from March 1,2017 to August 31,2019 were included into this study.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were conducted to identify independent risk factors of postoperative complication in the 414 patients.A nomogram was developed by R software and validated to predict the risk of postoperative complications.RESULTS Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age(OR=1.05,95%CI:1.00-1.09),renal failure(OR=0.90,95%CI:0.83-0.97),Type 2 diabetes(OR=1.05,95%CI:1.00-1.09),albumin(ALB)(OR=0.91,95%CI:0.83-0.99)were independent risk factors of postoperative complication in elderly patients with hip replacement(P<0.05).For validation of the nomogram,receive operating characteristic curve revealed that the model predicting postoperative complication in elderly patients with hipreplacement was the area under the curve of 0.8254 (95%CI: 0.78-0.87), the slope of the calibrationplot was close to 1 and the model passed Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (χ^(2) = 10.16, P =0.4264), calibration in R E_(max) = 0.176, E_(avg) = 0.027, which all demonstrated that the model was ofgood accuracy.CONCLUSIONThe nomogram predicting postoperative complications in patients with total hip replacementconstructed based on age, type 2 diabetes, renal failure and ALB is of good discrimination andaccuracy, which was of clinical significance.