本文首先基于结构向量自回归和溢出效应模型，从不同视角对国际石油价格与宏观经济稳定之间关系的经验事实进行研究，发现国际石油价格上升能够推动通货膨胀上升，但对产出的抑制作用不显著，石油价格对产出与通胀的溢出效应相对有限。随后基于一般均衡的理论视角，构建包含能源价格因素的DSGE框架，引入了技术、政策和国际石油价格等外生冲击，利用贝叶斯估计方法和脉冲响应函数，分析得到的实证结果与之前的结论基本一致，进一步增强了结论的可靠性。本文为深入理解石油价格波动对我国宏观经济的作用机制和影响特征提供了帮助，对于维护我国经济稳定与能源安全具有积极的理论和现实意义。%Based on the structural vector auto-regression and spillover effect model and from different angle of views, the paper makes a research on the empirical facts of the relationship between the international oil price and the macroeconomic stability, and finds that the rise of the international oil price could push the inflation to rise, but it has no significant restraint to the output, and the spillover effects of the oil price on the output and inflation are relatively limited. Then based on the perspective of the general equilibri-um theory, the paper constructs DSGE framework including energy price factors, introduces exogenous shocks such as technology, policy and international oil price etc., uses Bayesian estimation method and impulse response function, draws the conclusion that the empirical results is consistent with the above analysis, thus further enhances the reliability of the conclusion. The paper provides the as-sistance in deeply understanding the effect mechanism and influence characteristics of the fluctuations of the oil price on China’s macro economy, and has a positive theoretical and realistic significance for China to maintain economic stability and energy security.
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