三峡库区白杨坪水电站决策阶段项目风险分析

摘要

水电站项目投资较高，为控制投资风险，需要在电站建设决策阶段进行项目风险识别、评估。白杨坪水电站利用三峡水库汛期水位调度落差进行深度开发，有别于常规水电站，故项目整体风险水平较高。为此，引入风险坐标图评价法，对影响该项目投资决策的各种风险进行分析，以确定主要风险因素的指标区域和风险等级；并提出相应的风险应对措施。%In order to control the investment risk, the risk identification and assessment of hydropower station project should be done in decision-making stage because of the large amount of investment of hydropower project. The Baiyangping Hydropower Station is different from other conventional hydropower projects as it uses the drop of water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir in flood season to produce electricity. The overall risk of the Station is higher. By introducing risk coordinate graph, the risks which influencing investment decision of the Station are analyzed to determine the index and level of main risk factors and present corresponding risk treatment measures.